https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/10/russia-ukraine-putin-war-future/
Staring Down the Black Hole of Russia�s Future
Foreign Policy �� by Anastasia Edel � March 10, 2023
By , a writer and social historian.
We used to live in a world where large-scale conventional wars that left thousands of dead and wounded existed only in video games and books. A world where mutually beneficial commercial activity was guaranteed by a global security order, to which the world�s leading nations adhered in exchange for membership in a shared civilization. A world trending irreversibly toward liberal democracy.
Russia�s war of choice shattered these assumptions. In the heart of Europe, at least 18,000 civilians �are dead, 14.5 million displaced , and thousands more tortured, mutilated, forcefully resettled. The trauma and misfortune Russia has wrought, unprovoked, on Ukraine is akin to those depicted in the tragedies of antiquity�advanced weapons such as drones and missiles notwithstanding. The barbarity of Russian warfare defies everything modernity stands for.
When this war is over, though, there is still hope that Ukraine will take its place in a brighter and honorable future, earned through the heroism of its people. The same cannot be said for Russia, which now finds itself staring down the inevitable black hole of its future.
We used to live in a world where large-scale conventional wars that left thousands of dead and wounded existed only in video games and books. A world where mutually beneficial commercial activity was guaranteed by a global security order, to which the world�s leading nations adhered in exchange for membership in a shared civilization. A world trending irreversibly toward liberal democracy.
Russia�s war of choice shattered these assumptions. In the heart of Europe, at least 18,000 civilians �are dead, 14.5 million displaced , and thousands more tortured, mutilated, forcefully resettled. The trauma and misfortune Russia has wrought, unprovoked, on Ukraine is akin to those depicted in the tragedies of antiquity�advanced weapons such as drones and missiles notwithstanding. The barbarity of Russian warfare defies everything modernity stands for.
When this war is over, though, there is still hope that Ukraine will take its place in a brighter and honorable future, earned through the heroism of its people. The same cannot be said for Russia, which now finds itself staring down the inevitable black hole of its future.
I came of age as the borders of the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia embraced the West. I was one of those euphoric young Russians standing amid the ruins of communism, looking forward to a life free of ideology, oppression, and untruths. Back then, it seemed that after a decades-long totalitarian detour, Russia had finally found its true path�that of a free, democratic country. Now I�m forced to revise, yet again, my assumptions about what Russia is and what it will become.
This time, I, like many others, struggle to see any light in Russia�s future. I asked a group of military experts, sociologists, journalists, and economists who think about Russia professionally to help me envision the future. If there�s any agreement among them, it is that Russia as we knew it�a semi-mythical Eurasian nation that, according to its own lore, had saved the world from the Mongols and Nazis, endured a communist experiment, and then reunited itself with the West�is no longer there. Should Russia endure as a state within its current borders, we might as well come up with a new name for it.
So deep is the country�s malaise that even Russian President Vladimir Putin�s exit from the Russian political stage, whenever it occurs, is unlikely to change the country�s current trajectory. Too many red lines have been crossed, too many points of no return passed. Increasingly lawless, economically doomed, and morally bankrupt, Russia is running out of good endings, as though caught in a reenactment of its own sad folk tale in which the only choices available to the protagonist are to lose his horse, lose his life, or lose his soul.
Police officers detain a woman as she protests against Russia�s invasion of Ukraine in central Moscow on March 20, 2022. AFP via Getty Images
War is a great catalyzer: It sharpens trends already in place and hastens their inevitable denouement. Russia�s descent into authoritarianism started a long time ago, but until Feb. 24, 2022, Putin felt compelled to at least maintain the semblance of a managed democracy.
Not anymore. �War has accelerated Russia�s descent from autocracy and into a totalitarian state,� said Mark Feygin, a former Russian opposition politician and lawyer who now runs a popular YouTube channel �tracking the war. Russians� two remaining freedoms�the ability to leave the country �and to access alternative sources of information �can be shut down at any moment. Lev Gudkov, a prominent Moscow-based sociologist and director of Russia�s last independent pollster, the Levada-Center , described Putin�s regime as �totalitarianism 2.0,� under which key repressive instruments of the Soviet Union, including a politicized police force, subservient courts, and media censorship, have been reinstituted in a reversal of 1990s liberalism.
One clear break from its Soviet past is the Kremlin�s willingness to operate outside of any legal boundaries, or even its own societal norms. The distance between prison and success has always been short in Russia, but Russia today is a country where private individuals such as Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the infamous Wagner Group, can recruit convicts, arm them with weapons supplied by the Russian Ministry of Defense, and throw them to the frontlines. Those who manage to survive are granted amnesty and hailed as heroes , despite their criminal pasts.
It will be a country of warlords and criminals, where force is the only argument and crimes are not crimes so long as they are committed for the Motherland.
Exiled businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Russia�s richest man before Putin imprisoned him, said Putin had �reset the rules of the game towards pure violence.� Russians never expected much from their historically weak legal system, but now they can be punished outside of the court of law in a positively medieval fashion .
This brutal �justice� isn�t limited by Russia�s borders, or battlefield lines. In case it wasn�t already clear by the poisoning of Alexey Navalny or Sergei Skripal, Russian agents� suspected involvement �in the recent Spanish letter bomb campaign�whose targets included the Spanish prime and defense ministers, and foreign diplomats�is yet another indication that Russia will resort to terrorism to achieve its goals, a hallmark of a failed state.
Whatever Russia emerges after the war, it won�t be the Russia of Chekhov and Dostoyevsky, the country that once tantalized Western intellectuals with its perennial quest for meaning and capacity for the sublime. It will be a country of warlords and criminals, where force is the only argument and crimes are not crimes so long as they are committed for the Motherland.
Russian soldiers run along Red Square in central Moscow on Sept. 29, 2022, as the square is sealed prior to a ceremony of the incorporation of new territories into Russia. ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP via Getty Images
If this metamorphosis worries Russians, they show few signs of it. Having once considered themselves part of a peace-loving nation that picks up arms only to defend itself , the population has now closed ranks around its war-waging president. �If at the start of the invasion we saw fear and disorientation, towards the end of 2022 our polls showed increased public support for the authorities,� Gudkov told me.
In a repressive state, polls may not accurately reflect the true sentiment behind perfunctory answers, and samples may be biased towards pro-government participants, because those who don�t agree are afraid to participate. But they do indicate an overall trend. Of the 72 percent indicating their support for the government, 20 to 25 percent are actively pro-war�either because they have bought into Putin�s ressentiment narrative or been convinced that Russia really is surrounded by enemies. Propaganda pours daily from every TV screen in the country, and it is effective in manufacturing a form of organized mass consensus.
Many Russians likely share some psychological propensity to justify the war because if what they believe�that their country is engaged in a righteous war against forces of evil�is untrue, then the alternative is being complicit in its crimes.
Many Russians likely share some psychological propensity to justify the war because if what they believe�that their country is engaged in a righteous war against forces of evil�is untrue, then the alternative is being complicit in, and thus culpable for, its crimes. Still, the majority may simply be afraid to protest given the scale of repression they experience and the regime�s track record of brutality against dissenters. �People feel impotent to influence the regime, so they adapt,� said Mikhail Fishman, a Russian independent journalist and host of a popular analytical show that is blocked in Russia.
As economic conditions worsen, Russians will simply be told to tighten their belts further and make sacrifices for Russia�s �great victory.� Those sacrifices won�t be small. Sergei Guriev, a professor of economics at Sciences Po in Paris, warned of the �catastrophic� economic impact of Western sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sector, the main source of funding for the federal budget.
Equally bad for Russia�s economic prospects is its unprecedented brain drain. Since the start of the invasion, more than a million people, or 1.5 percent of the country�s labor force, have fled. Whether afraid of being drafted or repulsed by Putin�s war against a nation with which Russia shares centuries of common past, those who leave tend to be more educated and productive. Their absence will prevent Russia from developing knowledge-based industries or diversifying from an oil- and gas-based economy in the future. Likely a long-term pariah state, Russia will continue to be cut off from cross-border trade and investment while it hemorrhages cash and resources into a bottomless war effort�instead of, say, schools or hospitals. Taken together, these trends indicate a bleak economic future, the brunt of which will be carried by the Russian people. The only trajectory available to their country is that of irreversible economic decline.
A municipal worker breaks off the ice from a World War I monument in western Moscow on Jan. 20. ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP via Getty Images
What of the Russian elites, whose hedonistic pre-war lifestyles, replete with yachts and villas on the French Riviera, are a far cry from the stringent demands imposed by their boss? They can�t be happy, yet there have been no high-profile government resignations or criticisms of the war from this group. The oligarchs, too, are silent, even though many have ended up under Western sanctions. �Putin has done a lot to make sure they all know he can persecute any lack of loyalty,� Guriev said. According to Gudkov�s data, 12 percent of Russia�s high-ranking officials have been arrested over the past five to six years.
This reality creates the same mood of fear among elites as it does among regular people. Arkady Babchenko, a journalist who staged his own death to thwart an alleged assassination plot by Russian security services, put it more bluntly: �Anyone showing dissent will simply fall out of the window��a nod to a string of unexplained deaths �of Russian businessmen over the past few months. �Putin rules Russia as if with a joystick,� Babchenko said. �It�ll go wherever he turns it.�
Can Russia survive as a state? Many experts�and a growing portion of world leaders�think not.
Lawless, declining in population �and talent, and stuck in a resource-draining war against the collective West, it�s difficult to avoid the question much longer: Can Russia survive as a state? Many experts�and a growing portion of world leaders�think not.
Retired U.S. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, told me that the West should be preparing for the federation�s imminent breakup. What�or who�would emerge after the current regime is anyone�s guess, he said. �The Kremlin has always been opaque, but in the old days we knew who the next three or four guys were,� Hodges said. �Now I don�t think anybody has confidence in what would regime change look like.�
If the breakup is imminent, how soon will it come? In an assessment created for the U.S. military a few years ago, Alexander Vindman, former director for European affairs for the U.S. National Security Council, forecasted Russia�s decline over the course of decades; now, the calculus has shifted to years. It�s possible, he said, that the beginning of Russia�s breakup may be seen in the next five to 10 years, particularly on the state�s margins. Vindman has studied Russia for years, but even for him it is hard �to break out of the confines of the notion that Russia will always be there, that it�s an enduring state,� he said.
Unlikely as Russia�s disintegration might sound, breaking the country into national �successor states� may be the only way to put an end to its pattern of predatory, consumptive despotism against its neighbors. For centuries, Russia has cast itself as a metropole, and its playbook for success has been based on the contributions of its provinces and republics, which act as an economic engine and talent farm for Moscow. That arrangement collapsed in 1991, and since then, Russia has failed to replace it with a more sustainable or productive model. It can�t quite shake its raiding mentality.
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Ironically, a defeat by Ukraine could trigger Russians to reexamine their national identity.
Alexander Etkind, a historian at the European University Institute, thinks in terms of �de-federalization,� a process in which Russia�s ethnic regions sue for sovereignty to reclaim their wealth. Most of Russia�s oil and gas, Etkind said, is extracted in two autonomous ethnic regions in Siberia: Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi. From there, oil and gas are piped to Europe, but the hundreds of billions of dollars of profit go to Moscow, which then doles out payments to its regions. Disruption of that model by Western sanctions may prompt resource-rich regions to challenge Moscow�s control. Why can�t the Republic of Sakha sell its diamonds itself? Why does the Chechen Republic need a battled, isolated Moscow to sell its oil?
In the post-colonial world, Russia�s modus operandi of plundering territories in its domain is not only amoral but outdated. �The problem with the Russian empire,� Feygin said, �is that it doesn�t produce anything. Let it finish falling apart.�
Can anything be built on the territory once called Russia that isn�t a prison? Despite the country�s failure to do so in 1917 and 1991, Khodorkovsky�the exiled businessman and head of the Open Russia opposition coalition�believes that Russia could be rebuilt as a parliamentary republic. In his manifesto
People leave after a patriotic concert dedicated to the upcoming Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow on Feb. 22. NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA/AFP via Getty Images
This and any other remotely optimistic scenario for Russia have one important condition: Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat. Though in the short term, likely the next two to three years, the defeat would only lead to more repression, it would weaken Putin politically and open the possibility for change. That doesn�t mean there will be a revolution. Russian people have long abandoned attempts to influence their government (elections in Russia are �managed� from above, just like everything else), but a more moderate faction within Russia�s current ruling elite may be able to steer the regime toward a lite version of Khrushchev�s Thaw, the period of relative liberalization that followed denunciation of Stalin�s terror. It could even be that, after a temporary revanchist swing toward �national patriots,� a democratic coalition would get another chance at rebuilding Russia, as is the hope of Khodorkovsky.
It isn�t clear, though, how eager Putin�s elite will be to give up their wealth or even freedom, as they�re likely to someday face criminal charges for their involvement in his war. Just as Putin was once the guarantor of their wealth, his rule may be their only chance to avoid persecution.
Russia still has plenty of sympathizers who see it as a counterweight to U.S. hegemony.
Putin may even convince his underlings that being shunned by the West is not the end of the world and that money, the raison d��tre of his regime, can be made elsewhere. Russia still has plenty of sympathizers who see it as a counterweight to U.S. hegemony. The unfolding geopolitical realignment may even weaken the effect of Western sanctions, as Russia could switch its supply sources and develop alternative markets for its oil, gas, and other natural resources.
One year into the invasion, with Russian casualties mounting, it is clear Putin has decided to win this war no matter the cost. He�s urgently switched Russia�s economy onto military tracks and directed factories to work day and night to produce artillery shells and guns. The Russian army is expected to mobilize more troops in the spring. They may be untrained and unequipped, but they will still be thousands of men thrown into a fight.
Drawing out this war is Putin�s only hope, Hodges says. Today, Western support for Ukraine is strong. Yet it is not inconceivable that if the war goes on for too long, at some point the West may be forced to address other pressing domestic or international issues instead. In this less hopeful scenario, a battered and outnumbered Ukraine will be forced to negotiate. And Putin�s regime will be allowed to survive, regroup, and pursue its next target.
A damaged bust of former Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin rests in the street of Lyman, Ukraine, on March 1. In the year since Russia invaded, many statues and monuments to Russian and Soviet leaders have been damaged or removed from public spaces throughout Ukraine. John Moore/Getty Images
There seem to be three paths available for a post-war Russia under Putin or whomever may succeed him: break up into smaller pieces, turn further toward tyranny to keep what�s left of the realm together, or endure a long period of slow decline.
The common thread in all three is violence. A breakup means re-distribution of power and assets, which won�t happen peacefully. A weakened, anachronistic empire, whether in its tyrannical or slow decline incarnation, means a Russia severed from its foundational myths and struggling to stay economically relevant�a dark, unpromising place.
Russia has become a democracy supernova that never fulfilled its promise, collapsing in on itself, spreading death and destruction to those within its orbit.
This is a far cry from the Russia that people shaped by perestroika had hoped for. Instead, Russia has become a democracy supernova that never fulfilled its promise, collapsing in on itself, spreading death and destruction to those within its orbit.
But nothing lasts forever, not even a black hole. The decline is slow, but one day a black hole runs out of matter to consume and starts losing its mass, exhaling tiny particles back into the universe. They escape faster and faster, until the black hole�s center is small and unstable. In the final tenth of a second of its long life, all that is left evacuates at once in a huge flash of light and energy. What was once thought to be eternal becomes a memory.
No one�not the best experts, the Kremlin�s innermost circle, or even Putin himself�can predict conclusively whether Russia�s own demise will come in the form of a huge explosion, a slow decay, or some combination of the two. But after years of consuming and destroying all the light in its path, perhaps the bigger question is whether Putin�s Russia can transform what it has consumed into something viable.
For Russia itself, Ukraine�s victory may be the only chance. In the words of Gudkov, �It�ll bring some future back.�